Method

The heat health early warning system will use daily meteorological and mortality data from 147 European regions in 16 countries, which represent a total population of over 420 million people. Associations will be calculated by means of Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models (DLNM), controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, and including a range of lags for the modelling of delayed effects. The system will be driven by weather forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS) for lead times of up to 15 days. Uncertainties will be explored through the joint analysis of the 51 ensemble members included in the forecast scheme and the confidence intervals of the epidemiological associations.

Blue-Action is funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Programme and specifically by the Blue-Growth BG-10-2016 call "Impact of Arctic changes on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere". The Blue-Action project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 727852.
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